German Election Results

What does it mean?

Eighty-four percent of the voting population voted in the German election that was held on Sunday, February 23, 2025. Some people voted beforehand by mail, but otherwise people went into their local polling place and voted, so it was clearly considered important to the population. Up until the election day I was still hearing that one third of the voters were undecided. Supposedly the big issues for voters were immigration and economy. That sounds a lot like in the US, and as in the USA, the population was beset with misinformation and political lies and grandstanding from the AfD, and the CDU/CSU about how big a problem 4 incidents of car and knife attacks in 2024-25 presented for the population in terms of safety from immigrants, which translated into we have to do something, even we have to stop immigration. Then, as in the USA, immigration was falsely tied to the economy as well. Everyone who feels that they are struggling financially and thinks getting rid of immigrants does not understand that immigrants put money into the economy from their work, which grows the economy. Secondly, they don’t understand that there is a shortage of working aged people who are willing and able to work in Germany in the jobs that are available. These are important understandings that apparently the CDU, AfD, and BSW voters do not understand.

One thing that was not mentioned as a factor in the voting, is that Donald Trump and Elon Musk influenced the election. Prior to Trump winning the undecided voters might not have felt as compelled to vote, but given that Trump has threatened Ukraine and Europe with withdrawing support from Ukraine and NATO, everyone has to be aware that that will bring about changes. How does this show in the voting? While there was an overall vote, in which the CDU/CSU won the largest share of the vote with 28.52% and the AfD came in second with 20.8% of the vote, it is a total that is still just under 50%. So, I do not know if this coalition could rule alone. In any case, for now Merz says he will not form a coalition with the AfD’s Alice Weidel. Whew!

No one I personally talked to thinks that Scholz has the bravery and decisiveness to stand up to Trump and for Ukraine. Scholz has been a huge disappointment to Germans who care about Ukraine and avoiding a WWIII, and to Ukraine, and to the EU because Scholz just has not been bold enough. Merz is trying to appear differently, so we shall see. He has never governed, and I am not big on putting untried people in charge in challenging situations. I value experience. Can Merz listen to others? We shall see. Alice Weidel has never governed either as far as I know. So, now the CDU has to form a coalition. They can join with the SPD which will not have Scholz as chancellor but will have Boris Pistorius, a very popular candidate whom Scholz should have stepped aside for, who will hopefully keep his position as Minister of Defense. Continuity in these times is important.

After the AfD there are the Greens and then the Left party. I cannot see Merz governing with them because both are considered Left of Center, but then again, it would bring more thought to the Bundestag. Still, those two parties will bring more thought anyway because they have seats. Merz has said he would like a coalition by Easter. You can see the Christian Dominance in his thinking by him using a Christian holiday as a time marker.

There are some interesting statistics from the election for me. First of all I look at a graph that shows how people voted by age. One can see that people who were raised with the Nazi times stories in their homes and who are in the 2 oldest groups had the smallest portion for AfD. That is also true of the 18-24 year olds who has a somewhat smaller portion. I am positing that they have learned this in school and it is still fresh. The ones in the 35-44 group seem to be removed from the learning they had, and have not grown up with parents who lived during the Holocaust and told them the stories. The ones I grew up with that made me say, “Never Again!” The CDU/CSU has promised to not work with the AfD which I call the New German Nazi Party because of their beliefs. Clearly Elon Musk sees it like that too.

When we look at how Germans voted by gender we see that men leaned more conservative by voting in larger numbers for the CDU/CSU and the AfD than women.

For parties that are considered Center Left and Left parties of the SPD, Greens, the Left and the BSW. It was discussed shortly before the election that the Left party had had a resurgence with young women choosing them because of their pro-immigrant stance and anti-war stance.

I also think it is important to point out that Christian Lindner’s Party the FDP did not do well enough to get seats in the Bundestag. In fact, Christian Lindner insisted on being the chancellor candidate for his party, after he tanked Germany increasing their budget ceiling in order to fund supporting industry and pay for increases in military spending considered by most to be vital to the country’s health and that of Europe. I for one am glad that his party lost seats. If he had not refused to fund environmental and social programs the coalition might not have folded and instead of having a special election when Trump took over the USA, we have had an election and no coalition ready to manage the terrible situation going on with Trump blackmailing Ukraine’s president Zelenskiy for his country’s minerals and energy.

Another interesting way to look at the elections is by German Bundesland or State. If I were a foreigner choosing where to live I am going to say any state in which the AfD or CDU got the most votes is not attractive politically. If I were a democratic American choosing where to put my tourism dollars I would avoid these states.

There are 16 states.

In Baden Württemburg the CDU came in first and the AfD came in second. Only go to the very popular university city of Freiburg, or to Karlsruhe where the Greens came in first. Otherwise skip the state, and no Mercedes please. In Bayern the CDU came in first and AfD second. I would avoid moving to or putting my money in there. So no BMWs please.

In Berlin home to two more popular universities Humboldt and the Freie University, the Lefts came in first and the CDU came in second with the Greens in third. I would say support the city, and even move there, but stay away from the AfD voting parts of the city. That would be the bright blue spot on the map below in the community called Marzahn-Hellendorf. The pink areas are Die Linke, and the Gray are CDU. The dark pink is where the Humboldt University main campus is in the City Center.

Brandenburg had AfD in first and CDU second. Stay away!

Bremen has SPD first, CDU second and Greens third. A welcoming city-state for immigrants with a lot of wealthy people, but also because they have the highest percentage of immigrants in Germany at 36.5%. It has a large refugee population also has the largest poor population. Those numbers tend to coincide with poverty and immigrants although that might be not be a one-to-one correspondence.

In Hessen CDU came in first and SPD second, with AfD a close third. So, because it has Frankfurt which has a lot of foreigners I would consider moving there, but only to the larger cities.

In Hamburg the SPD came in first with CDU second and the Greens a close third. While it is super expensive it also has a large immigrant population and is a good place to live and to spend your money.

Avoid Mecklenburg Vorpomern. There the AfD came in first and CDU a distant second.

Niedersachsen the CDU came in first, with the SPD second, and AfD a close third. So, you can visit but if you want to move there, move to Emden, the University town where the Green Party came in first. Perhaps to Göttingen, the liberal university city where the Grimm Brothers were rebel librarians.

In Nordrhein Westfallen CDU came in first and SPD second with AfD third. There the places to go are Köln, Aachen a university town, and Münster another university town, which were all won by the Green Party. You can also go to Dortmund, Bochum and Duisburg which were won by the SPD. Avoid Gelsenkirchen which was won by the AfD!

Rheinland Pfalz definitely skip with the CDU first, AfD second, and then SPD a close third. Especially avoid Kaiserslautern where the AfD came in first. Interestingly enough it has a large US military base in the area.

Schlesswig Holstein up north has CDU first, SPD second and AfD third. Go to Kiel which was won by the Green party. Saarland, which is near France

Avoid Saxen! The AfD came in first by far, followed by CDU. Avoid Saxen-Anhalt for the same reason.

Thüringen has almost 39% for AfD in first, and CDU a distant second with almost 19%. Skip this state in which my mother was born 90 years ago.

So, we shall see if Germany can develop a cohesive immigration policy that does not violate the EU laws, and whether it can now raise the debt ceiling to help the country meet its economic and military obligations. Will Merz be the leader to help the EU consolidate on trade and in support of Ukraine.

https://apnews.com/general-news-2508a45741e14ccc832ed74dd8ef4758

https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2025-02-23-BT-DE/ergebnisse-bundeslaender.shtml

https://www.dw.com/en/german-election-results-and-voter-demographics-explained-in-charts/a-71724186

https://www.dw.com/en/german-election-friedrich-merz-urges-independence-from-us/live-71700729

https://www.politico.eu/article/german-election-results-2025-who-won-map-cdu-afd-spd/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germanys-election-graphics-2025-02-23/

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-2025/wahlergebnis-wahlkreis-berlin-mitte-live#karte