Germany Prepares for War-Updated

Will I get a brochure on what to do?

Photo by Adrian Schmidt

Below is a piece I posted on December 2, 2024. The substance of it still stands. I would point out that Trump has now publicly sided with Russia against Ukraine and against other European NATO allied countries. This comes as no surprise. I was expecting either that he would say he would not help Ukraine and Europe, and then pull out US military, or that he would say Russia is now the US’s ally and have US troops join Russian troops against Ukraine. It seems that he is first throwing Ukraine under the bus and has cut Ukraine and Europe out of the “peace” talks his people help in Saudi Arabia. Then, he is blackmailing Ukraine not just for continued support, which Ukraine absolutely cannot count on, but may start with demanding monetary payment in the form of investments in Ukraine to make it a total US client state, which means a Russian client state. That will not preclude threats of either using US military against Ukraine, or at least for supporting Russian military. I hope it leads to both a European and American outcry.

More recently I have learned that Germany is discussing returning mandatory military duty, which would this time include males and females. My daughter knows that I believe that women should also be a part of a military, and that would include her. In addition, I am going to be asking my local politicians if they can have war and weapons training for civilians like me. My husband at least has done military duty. I do not want to be in the position that Ukrainians were in on February 24, 2022, of being totally hopeless. A friend who just the other night made fun of my plan to go to relatives on farms, as I know my mom and her siblings did as a child during WWII, asked to come with us after he heard my rational for being concerned. I see Putin as getting ready to make war on Europe with Donald Trump and Elon Musk right at his side. We must prepare quickly. They are in a mania right now of action, and impulsivity, so there is no telling where it will lead. We need to be ready for a full scale World War 3 on the European continent.

Here is the original piece that I wrote.

I spent a lot of time reading Project 2025 with a group of other members of Democrats Abroad who are mostly in Germany where I am currently living. It is a whopping 920 pages, and details how each part of the US government is to be run by the next conservative president. Now that we have the next conservative president elect, we are waiting to see what will actually happen when he gets into office. Even before taking office, Trump has already affected US foreign policy. As a dual citizen of the US and Germany I am examining how is this affecting Germany. There is talk of preparing to replace the support that the US has provided with the military being based here, as we see Trump potentially leaving Europe to its own devices while he turns more attention to defending against China.

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Did this influence the problems Germany is having politically right now? I can’t know. Germany certainly has its own worries. The Traffic Light Coalition of the Red (SPD-Social Democrats), green (The Greens) and Yellow (FDP-Free Democratic Party) has fallen apart ostensibly due to disagreements about the finances. So, while most people here are contending with preparing for an unexpectedly early election in February, there are some who are thinking of whether or not Putin will expand his war beyond Ukraine to other parts of Europe. To this end we see that Scandinavian countries have updated their civilian war preparedness advice and Germany is doing this too. The Baltic countries have been on high alert since this latest war on Ukraine started. Here in Germany the possibility of expanded involvement, if not direct involvement is more on the forefront now that Trump has won, because a Trump led USA is seen to be an unreliable NATO member. After all, Trump cultivates his reputation as a “disruptor. He is expected to pull troops out of Europe partly or fully even if the USA does not pull out of the NATO alliance. The incoming US government represents the belief that Europe should handle its’ own problems without counting on the US for help, so each country in the NATO alliance has to consider how to help compensate for less or no US support.

Thus, Germany has released a 1000 page document on planning for war. The government is starting by preparing the corporate sector on what they should start planning for now. This is supposed to be a living document, and Hamburg is the city being used to practice civilian readiness, and then create a model to be used countrywide, as far as I understand. It has been assessed that in the next 4-5 years, Russia will have armed themselves enough to expand into the Baltics, and perhaps more directly into Germany too. Russia is building 25 battle tanks a month, while Germany is turning out 3 a year. The German army is already seeing increased drones flying overhead, and cyber attacks and sabotage on bases and planes are increasing too. As far as cyber warfare goes, I think we are already in a global war. Russia excels in this form of warfare, and that is a concern too. A concern that it seems to me we are all far too underprepared to take on as cries of democracy and freedom of speech want to allow illiberal ideas to have a voice in liberal democracies. This cyber disinformation war helps to shape public perceptions, which includes apathy, anger and general dissatisfaction from the population, as well as targeted hatred against perceived enemies within, like immigrants.

As the daughter of a German mom, who has spend my life shuttling back and forth between the two continents, I have observed that Germans like to complain. Even now, most of my German friends are critical of the government and the quality of life in Germany. It surprises me because in general, they have fewer things to complain about then my American friends do. Their children are not being trained to be prepared for mass shooters in school with drills that terrify young children, they have health care and other insurances which are relatively inexpensive, and everyone I know has a nice home to live in and they travel several times a year to interesting destinations, and compared to Americans have much more leisure time. German parents do not have to worry about paying for private school tuition or saving for exorbitant university educations because most still consider their public schools good enough and don’t give sending their children there a thought, and university education is tuition free. And yet, I hear a general sense of dissatisfaction. The health care is less good, the trains run less well, things are too expensive. This might be true, but it is all relative to life in other places. I do not hear Germans saying, “I am better off than others, ” but more of, “my life is not hitting the ideal that I expect.”

One can see this dissatisfaction in a study of children in Europe with German 15-year olds ranking near the bottom in satisfaction with around 22% being dissatisfied. The neighbor country the Netherlands only has 6% dissatisfied, with the European average being 16.6%. It seems that 15 might be an age where children start to spend more and more time on the Internet, and discover available content that is influencing how they feel about themselves. In reality being on the internet starts much much younger. Children are vulnerable recipients of media and thus make great targets for the platforms themselves and any one who wants to target them. The Internet is known for exacerbating dissatisfaction. However, adults are vulnerable too. A survey of German adults finds that 60% feel that they are happy, and it is related to standard of living, but they believe that only 25% are happy. The disconnect between reality and perception is interesting.

I say that happiness and contentedness are connected and 2/5 of the population not feeling happy is a large group that is more vulnerable to exploitation. Also, there seems to be a disconnect in the level of life satisfaction that people report with the satisfaction they are actually feeling that might be tied to cultural norms of self presentation. Where this ties in to war preparedness is just examining how vulnerable the population is to disinformation campaigns which are an important piece of contemporary warfare. A part of what is known as hybrid warfare. The German government is aware of the threat of disinformation and it is discussed in the Federal Ministry of the Interior and Community. The German government has a system for addressing disinformation that includes working with other governments, but there is not an ad campaign, or other public awareness mechanisms that I am aware of where they educate and inform the citizenry. Nor am I aware of teaching about social media disinformation in schools. Instead of teaching children how to negotiate this world that parents and their friends increasingly let them enter, they are trying to regulate what children can be exposed to. Schools should be teaching media literacy because this is increasingly an area of safety that is necessary to negotiate. The government should be teaching the adults about it as well. It is an important piece to any war preparedness of the public that needs to be enhanced.

In addition to more widespread public education on how to recognize disinformation, Germany has to do what the rest of Europe might dread them doing, which is rebuild their military with personnel and weaponry. My husband has done military service here, but many of our friends have done civil duty that has been offered as an alternative. A German military of 180,000 personnel is not competing against the Russian army of 1.5 million although with NATO allies, they are part of a greater force even without the US. With a civilian population that does not have a taste for war, and does not want to join the military I think Germany and other countries should look to Africa as a place to gain military personnel, in addition to preparing the civilian population for stepping in to enhance professional soldiers. I say this because military duty can be offered as a path to permanent residence status and citizenship for soldiers and their families. As Russia takes in malnourished North Koreans, who my friend has told me are quickly developing internet addictions, European countries could be offering a useful path to citizenship to people in African countries, not taken over by Russia and China. Germany has a low birth rate and the military is an area with manpower shortage, just like the tech world, and the construction industry. Africa is the continent with the youngest population. There may also be a place for recruiting immigrants from Africa and India into military manufacturing and technology jobs as well.

As for recruiting people to develop military technology, I have been reading about how Volkswagen is threatening to shut down plants because they cannot afford the move off of fossil fuels in their model for building cars. I think Germany should accept having fewer VWs on the roads and prepare for more tanks and weapons instead. Take those factories and workers and retool and retrain them so that the German military can be resupplied without relying on contracts with less reliable countries. Just getting ready will act as a damper on Russian efforts to prepare for an expanded war. Germany is a long way from the level at which it needs to be, if it is to be prepared for Russia marching on the rest of Europe, so it is high time to prepare, seeing that the US will probably be focusing on America First. I believe that being well armed and having a prepared military is a deterrent to countries like Russia with leaders like Putin.

Since Germany has not been preparing to defend itself, I am glad that there is now a plan that we know is going on. I hope they will update their civilian preparedness website. I easily find the emergency preparedness brochure on the website of the Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, but there is no specific section for war. We need to be preparing to step up more to help Ukraine, who is holding Russia back, and preparing to update our civilian preparedness for war in Germany. Scandinavian countries have all updated their wartime preparedness websites and brochures and notified the civilian population on what they should do. I read that Germany is developing an app to help one find a bomb shelter. I know where the bomb shelter is in my neighborhood. Fortunately, since my neighborhood is not trendy, the shelter has not been turned into housing. However, it also is not updated. I will be asking our mayor about that again. I also have not gotten any notification from the government of what is going on. I read that the government is recommending that new houses have shelters in them, who is paying that extra cost when there is already such a shortage of housing? As someone who has been having our older house renovated for over 2 years, I do not see creating a basement bomb shelter as impossible, but certainly not a quick thing to do and not anything we can afford right now. A couple of years ago I had read that people in France were buying ready to install custom bomb shelters for 50,000 Euros. This is not something the average homeowner can afford. I can develop other aspects of emergency preparedness, and have been discussing this with friends and relatives here. We are concerned on how we will be able to communicate if the platforms that we currently use are cut off or not trustworthy. Again I want to know more about that.

When we lived in Chicago my daughter was given advice for if she heard shooting when she was on her way to or from school by herself. I told her to roll under a car if she could for cover when walking and duck down under a seat if she was on a bus or train. Here in Germany we do not need to have a plan for shooting, but I am thinking of drone strikes, nuclear bombs and cyberattacks, as well as terrorism. These are not the things I want to be discussing with my 19-year-old daughter, who should be able to remain hopeful about her future for her mental well being. Covid was socially traumatic with its strong isolating effects, and I would like her to be able to move beyond that. For the most part she has. She is enjoying her university as well as the things she does outside of that. It is me that feels like I am having a hard time getting prepared as I think of all the things one needs to do. Find gas masks, get iodine pills, get the ventilation finished on my house, so it can close tightly it if I need to. Also, stock up at with water, canned and dry goods. Where will I keep these things? Should I get us gas masks? How many? Will I be spending time in my basement or going to the bomb shelter? Perhaps I should see how long it takes me to get there. Should I go on my bike? A friend of mine in the US, has already made her list of supplies consolidating the 4 Scandinavian lists, and is looking at where she can take a CPR class, and started talking about learning how to shoot a gun. My husband’s military service here in Germany was a long time ago. My daughter and I are wondering what does he remember? We know he drove a tank. How does that apply to todays tanks?

Fortunately, while waiting for Germany to get to reach the civilian population with specific plans I am starting to prepare. I do have access to German, US and the Scandinavian updated plans since they too have English language versions. I also have started discussing plans with my daughter, which is if war breaks out, where and how we will coming together if it is at all possible. Her city might be safer than mine, but cities in general are less safe, so I have started asking relatives who live in the countryside if we can come stay with them in case of war. So far, we have heard yes. Also, we are discussing what supplies one should have at home, and that she lives right by a subway station and should go there in case of bombing. While our first line of defense is to continue to support Ukraine, and do a better job of it, and to continue to appreciate the role they play in protecting us all, we do not want to be experiencing what Ukraine did on February 24, 2022. They are unfortunately the canaries in the coal mine, showing us what Russia is prepared to do under Putin’s leadership to keep himself in power. While Ukraine is doing such a good job of defending their and thus the EU democracy, a more widespread war has seemed very distant. With the election of Trump it seems less distant and in broaching the subject with my child I am trying to adjust her to the idea that we don’t succumb, we prepare, as I have with everything in life.

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